WW3 Checklist

Who won?

If you read “World War III?” you know the U.S. would probably have a tough time defeating China in a war. Since such a war would very likely revolve around Taiwan, let’s try and get a better understanding by pondering the sequence of events that would probably characterize such a conflict. As we shall soon see, it’s surprisingly complex.

Let’s begin with the following four questions:

  1. Will China attempt to take back Taiwan?
  2. If so, when and how?
  3. If China attacks Taiwan, how will the U.S. and its allies respond?
  4. Who would most likely win?

None of these questions can be answered definitively. However, I would bet money that China will attempt to take back Taiwan, and it will almost certainly succeed. I predict that China will take Taiwan back by 2030, possibly much sooner.

In “World War III?” I described a hypothetical scenario in which China smothers Taiwan under thousands of drones while blockading the island with its navy. Regardless of China’s strategy, an effort to take back Taiwan wouldn’t necessarily result in war. Consider the possibilities below:

  1. Taiwan agrees to reunification even before China makes a military move.
  2. Taiwanese officials surrender after China launches a military operation.
  3. Taiwanese defy China, prompting Chinese military forces to quickly subdue the island.

Next, let’s examine Team USA’s options.

  1. Do nothing.
  2. Intervene.

Leaders won’t have much time to make up their minds. Though media whores commonly postulate a Taiwan conflict lasting weeks or even months, it would very likely be over in a matter of days, conceivably hours. If the decision is made to defend Taiwan, then we have to answer two more questions:

  1. How?
  2. Who?

One of the most effective ways of fighting China might be to simply interfere with its maritime shipping, depriving it of raw materials and disrupting its commerce. However, this would not really constitute defending Taiwan. The Chinese will probably have stockpiles of raw materials, and their economy can survive a temporary downturn. If Western leaders really want to defend Taiwan, they will almost certainly have to deploy forces to the western Pacific and engage China in battle.

This begs the question who will fire the first shot?

The U.S. government would love to orchestrate a proxy war, letting Japanese, South Korean, and Philippines citizens die while the U.S. lets them test its latest weapons, similar to the war in Ukraine. But would America’s allies be willing to fight America’s war without American support?

My hunch is no, especially after the USA’s performance in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. I predict that there will be no credible attempt to defend Taiwan unless the U.S. leads the charge.

Unfolding War ˆ

Given the dizzying number of possible scenarios, it may be foolish to even attempt to predict how a war between China and the West might unfold. Nevertheless, I’ll give it my best shot . . .

First, let’s ask another “who?” question: Who will fire the first shot?

Will the Chinese wait for the U.S. and its allies to sucker punch it, or will it take the offensive and pull a modern version of Pearl Harbor? If the U.S. fires a missile at a Chinese military asset, would China launch an all-out attack on the U.S., or would it only target the source of the missile? Would it attack U.S. allies?

Similarly, what if Japan initiates hostilities by firing a missile at a Chinese ship off the coast of Taiwan? Would China attack Japan only, or would it attack the U.S. and all its allies?

Such uncertainty could pose a significant problem for Chinese and Western forces alike. If the situation escalates into all-out war, however, then what next?

South Korea has a powerful military and several U.S. military bases. Japan is even more powerful and has even more U.S. military bases. The Philippines is a much weaker nation and has just nine relatively new U.S. bases.

Therefore, I suspect the Chinese would focus on Taiwan and the Philippines initially. They have sufficient military forces to neutralize the U.S. military bases in the Philippines. They could even blockade the Philippines and subdue the country itself. Keeping military forces in the Philippines pinned down would give Chinese military forces operating on the south side of Taiwan a bigger safety margin.

The successful occupation of Taiwan would be a huge victory, and subduing the Philippines would be even more exciting. China’s southern flank would now be relatively safe, though U.S. and allied forces could still transit the South China Sea.

If China occupied Taiwan and defeated the Philippines, would South Korea and Japan continue fighting?

If so, China might receive help from North Korea and possibly Russia, particularly if the Ukraine war is over. Though South Korea could be a powerful adversary, letting North Korea off its leash could solve that problem. Allied with China, North Korea could either force South Korea to surrender or decimate the country.

With Taiwan occupied and South Korea and the Philippines neutralized, China would now be free to focus its military might on Japan and the U.S. Though some sources claim Japan’s military has a qualitative edge over China, China’s military is obviously far bigger. If North Korea and/or Russia join the fray, the Japanese may sue for peace.

With all its allies in the western Pacific defeated, what would the U.S. do next? What about China? If it hasn’t already destroyed U.S. military assets on Guam, it might well do so now. Would it consider attacking similar assets in Hawaii?

Chinese strategists could view such a war as an opportunity. Instead of merely defeating Japan, how about forcing it to purge the country off all U.S. military bases?

Pyrrhic Victory? ˆ

Suppose my rosy predictions don’t pan out? Imagine if the U.S. throws its entire might into a war with China and manages to destroy a number of ships and even targets on the mainland.

However, a Western victory would likely be a Pyrrhic victory. Even propaganda sites that predict almost certain victory for the U.S concede that China would likely destroy a large part of the U.S Navy. Even more extensive damage could be inflicted on U.S. allies.

How can the U.S. pay for a war with China when it’s national debt is already well over $30 trillion? With the U.S. economy teetering on the edge of collapse, a war with China could easily push it over the edge.

The U.S. and China are the world’s most powerful economies, and Taiwan’s TSMC is king of the hill in the global semiconductor industry. A war between these countries could thus have a devastating impact on the global economy. Moreover, China’s close relations with countries around the world could spark fighting or sanctions in the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America.

Weapons of Mass Destruction ˆ

China and the U.S. are both nuclear powers, as are several of their allies, including Russia and North Korea. There is thus a grave danger of a U.S.-China war going nuclear.

The Jews who control the U.S invented the atomic bomb. They are the masters of war and love to fight dirty. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine the U.S. unleashing a biological weapon. Merely destroying China’s rice crop could lead to massive starvation, for example.

How would China retaliate against such an attack?

Catch-22 ˆ

In the meantime, the U.S. is locked in a pair of catch-22s. It desperately wants to prevent China from taking back Taiwan. It also appears to be desperate to start a war with China, especially a proxy war.

But what would the Chinese do if the U.S. or its allies started a war? It would have little choice but occupy Taiwan before the U.S. could turn it into a Western fortress. At the same time, it isn’t likely that any U.S. allies are going to attack China on their own. They’re going to wait for the U.S. Navy to steam into the western Pacific.

The U.S. is thus caught in an almost humorous situation. It’s desperate for a war it can’t start—and probably can’t win. It’s also desperately dependent on allies that it has thrown under the bus and whose loyalty in the event of war would be questionable.

Yet another cloak of uncertainty surrounds Taiwan’s semiconductor giant, TSMC. What would be its fate in the event of war?

The Chinese would love to acquire TSMC with as little impact as possible. It’s hard to imagine the Taiwanese destroying TSMC, as it is a vital component of the island’s industry. That leaves the ball in the United States’ court.

Would the U.S., as at least one Congressman threatened, blow up TSMC? Doing so would likely hurt the U.S. more than China. Such a move would deal a devastating blow to the global economy, unleashing a wave of anger at the U.S. Moreover, the idea of the U.S. attacking its ally’s most important commercial asset is utterly crazy. It could prove the final straw, motivating European countries to give the U.S. the middle finger.

Summary ˆ

As you can see, a war between the U.S. and China would not be as simple as politicians and media whores would have us believe. No one knows how such a war would play out or who would win, if anyone. Ironically, the Chinese might view such a war as an opportunity to downsize the U.S., permanently.

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